Navigating toward 2050: The low-carbon transformation of aerospace

In a future defined by stringent carbon budgets and ambitious sustainability goals, the aviation industry faces the dual challenge of maintaining growth while drastically reducing its carbon emissions. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, underscored the need for immediate and significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This blog post explores what a low-carbon industrial system might look like in 2050, focusing on the aviation sector’s decarbonization strategies and their alignment with global climate targets.

Carbon budget allocation for the aviation industry

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published in March 2023 emphasizes that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is essential to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. For the aviation industry, this means operating within a constrained carbon budget. This strict allocation necessitates a profound transformation in the industry’s operations, technologies, and energy sources to meet these targets while maintaining growth.

The implementation of increasingly restrictive carbon quotas will necessitate a sectoral allocation of the global carbon budget. This approach ensures that each industry, including aviation, adheres to its fair share of emissions reductions. Policymakers and industry leaders must collaborate to establish and enforce these quotas, balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility.

Decarbonization strategies

Decarbonizing the aviation industry involves a multifaceted approach targeting Scope 1 (direct emissions), Scope 2 (indirect emissions from energy), and Scope 3 (other indirect emissions). The strategies focus on sustainable practices in the production of raw materials, energy consumption, and the adoption of alternative fuels.

Scope 1: Direct Emissions

1. Sustainable raw materials: Shifting production toward more sustainable practices for widely used raw materials including using renewable energy for electrolysis is crucial. Innovations in material science can lead to lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft, reducing overall emissions. Utilizing composite materials like CFRP (carbon fiber reinforced polymer) contributes to lighter aircraft, enhancing fuel efficiency.
2. Circular Economy Initiatives: Emphasizing the recyclability of materials such as aluminum, titanium and copper can significantly reduce the demand for virgin materials and lower the industry’s carbon footprint.

Scope 2: Indirect Emissions from Energy

1. Low-Carbon electricity consumption: Electrifying ground operations and ensuring that all electricity used in production processes comes from low-carbon or renewable sources are pivotal. This includes transitioning airport operations to green electricity and integrating renewable energy into the supply chain.
2. Fossil-free transportation and external supply chain: Implementing fossil-free transportation methods for materials and optimizing supply chains are essential. This involves using electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles for transportation and adopting digital transformation tools to minimize emissions associated with logistics.

Scope 3: Other Indirect Emissions

1. Alternative Fuels: SAFs, derived from renewable sources such as biomass and waste, are already available. The challenge lies in scaling up production to increase the SAF mix from a few percentages to 100%. This can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of aviation in the short to medium term.
2. Hydrogen: Hydrogen-powered aircraft are expected to become commercially viable by 2050. These aircraft offer a promising solution for zero-emission flights, especially for short to medium-haul routes, complementing the use of SAFs, eFuels, and biofuels.

Impacts of climate change on the aerospace sector

The aerospace sector is still highly reliant on fossil fuels, which means that transitioning to low carbon emission energy will potentially disrupt the global supply chains, increase operational costs, and affect the affordability of air travel. Adapting to these challenges requires a regionalized biophysical systemic approach, focusing on resilience and sustainability.

The depletion of fossil fuel resources necessitates a shift towards energy efficiency and moderation. The aviation industry’s energy mix, currently dominated by fossil fuels, must transition to renewable sources. This shift is not only a response to resource scarcity but also a strategic move to mitigate the rebound effect, where increased efficiency leads to higher overall energy consumption.

Technological levers and behavioral changes

Achieving a low-carbon aviation industry by 2050 requires both technological innovations and significant behavioral changes.

• Emphasizing circular economy practices, where resources are reused and recycled, is crucial. This approach minimizes waste, reduces the demand for virgin materials, and lowers the industry’s carbon footprint.
• Continuous improvements in energy efficiency, both in-flight and on the ground, are essential. Innovations such as advanced aerodynamics, more efficient engines, and optimized flight paths can contribute to substantial emissions reductions.
• The industry must foster a culture of sustainability among all stakeholders, from manufacturers to airlines and passengers. Encouraging responsible travel behavior, such as choosing direct flights and reducing unnecessary travel, can complement technological advancements.

Role of major aircraft manufacturers

Major players have a pivotal role in achieving the 1.5°C target. Their commitment to innovation and sustainability sets the pace for the entire industry. These companies are investing heavily in research and development to bring new, cleaner technologies to market.

They have been at the forefront of the aviation industry’s decarbonization efforts.

Improving the efficiency of freight operations and supply chains is a critical component of one major aircraft OEM’s sustainability strategy. By optimizing logistics and adopting digital transformation tools, the company aims to minimize emissions associated with the transportation of materials and components.

Another OEM is pioneering the use of recycled aluminum and developing new alloys that require less energy to produce. The company is also investing in technologies to recycle titanium and other high-value materials, reducing waste and conserving resources.

Conclusion

The aviation industry’s journey towards a low-carbon future is both challenging and essential. By adopting innovative technologies, embracing circular economy practices, and fostering behavioral changes, the industry can significantly reduce its carbon footprint. The collaborative efforts of major players, supported by stringent carbon quotas and sectoral allocations, are crucial in achieving the 1.5°C target and ensuring a sustainable future for aviation.